Eco-evolutionary control of pathogens

Abstract

Control can alter the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a target pathogen in two ways, by changing its population size and by directed evolution of new functions. Here we develop a fitness model of eco-evolutionary control that specifies a minimum leverage for successful control against the intrinsic dynamics of the pathogen. We apply this model to pathogen control by molecular antibody-antigen binding with a tunable level of antibodies. By analytical solution, we obtain a phase diagram of optimal control and show that an error threshold separates regimes of successful and futile control. Our analysis identifies few, independently measurable fitness parameters that predict the outcome of control. We show that optimal control strategies depend on mutation rate and population size of the pathogen, and we discuss how monitoring and computational forecasting affect the efficiency of control. We argue that these results carry over to more general systems and are elements of an emerging eco-evolutionary control theory.