Species Distribution and Climate Change

Phytoplankton performance in the lab predicts occurrence in the field across a global temperature gradient

The paper compares thermal niches of marine phytoplankton using lab experiments and species distribution models, finding strong agreement between lab-measured growth temperatures and field occurrence temperatures.

Population-level, state-dependent response as a trait predicting species redistribution under climate change

The paper identifies dynamic response traits as a novel trait predicting species redistribution under climate change using marine fish data and nonlinear time-series analysis.

Pervasive but lagged responses in the composition of small mammal communities to a century of climate change

The paper analyzes long-term small mammal community responses to climate change across three regions in California, finding that community composition lags behind climate change rates.

Spatial bias in GBIF data has limited impact on plant climate niche properties in Europe

This study evaluates the impact of spatial bias in GBIF data on plant climate niche properties in Europe and finds that GBIF data reliably characterize niches for many species when sampling bias is accounted for.

RuHere (Are You Here?): An R package to obtain, validate, and clean species records using metadata and specialist range information

RuHere is an R package that cleans and validates species occurrence data by integrating metadata, coordinate checks, and expert range information to identify and resolve problematic records.

cheCkOVER: An open framework and AI-ready global crayfish database for next-generation biodiversity knowledge

cheCkOVER transforms species occurrence records into structured, AI-ready outputs for biodiversity knowledge, enabling both human and computational systems to access and use the data.

From Big Data to Small Scales: Machine Learning Enhances Microclimate Model Predictions

This study improves microclimate model predictions by integrating drone-based data and machine learning, reducing errors by over 30% and offering insights for better model parameterization.

Effects of Host-Dependent Niches and Biotic Constraints on Climate Change Driven Range Shifts in Anemonefish

The paper assesses how host-dependent mutualisms affect climate-driven range shifts in anemonefish, finding that host immobility limits fish distributions and creates ecologically inaccessible areas under climate change.

Assessing protected areas as climate refugia for threatened plant species in Britain

This study identifies climate refugia in Britain for rare plant species and finds that protected areas with higher elevation, larger area, and latitude support more species.

Searching for a New Home or Rare Dispersal? Habitat Suitability and Landscape Connectivity of the Tibetan Brown Bear across the Indian Cold Deserts and the Tibetan Plateau

The paper assesses habitat suitability and landscape connectivity for the Tibetan brown bear across Ladakh and the Tibetan Plateau, finding functional connectivity rather than isolated dispersal.

Flexible Methods for Species Distribution Modeling with Small Samples

For species with 20 or fewer occurrence records, 24 of 31 species distribution models had AUC distributions not significantly different from Maxnet's; vote-counting ensembles give upper and lower range bounds.

Winners and Losers Among European Arthropods over the Last Half Century of Global Change

The paper analyzes 50 years of European arthropod occurrence data to show heterogeneous responses to global change, with climate variables and agricultural intensification driving shifts in distribution.

Warmer climate threatens the occurrence of giant trees in the Amazon basin

This study uses ecological niche modeling to project how climate change affects the distribution of giant trees in the Amazon under different emission scenarios.

Climatic niche conservatism in non-native plants depends on introduction history and biogeographic context

This study examines climatic niche changes in non-native plants across multiple regions, finding that niche dynamics depend on introduction history and biogeographic context rather than ecological traits.

subsppLabelR: a wrapper package in R to automatically label and filter subspecies occurrence data

subsppLabelR automatically labels and filters subspecies occurrence data, performing well for well-sampled subspecies but struggling with rare or endemic ones.

Future climate and land use change will equally impact global terrestrial vertebrate diversity

This study assesses the combined impact of climate and land use change on global terrestrial vertebrate diversity under two scenarios, finding both factors equally affect species richness in low and mid-latitudes.

The Performance and Potential of Deep Learning for Predicting Species Distributions

This study evaluates deep learning models for species distribution prediction, finding they match but do not surpass traditional methods, with performance issues for threatened species and data leakage concerns.

Vascular plant extinctions outpace colonizations under climate change

The paper projects future vascular plant range shifts under climate change and finds extinctions will outpace colonizations, highlighting complex interactions beyond simple latitudinal movements.

Where Climate Change and Sampling Bias Collide: Challenges of Predicting Biodiversity Change in Canada

The paper evaluates bias-correction methods for species distribution models using OCR validation on Canadian terrestrial vertebrates, finding improved performance against independent data but large richness discrepancies and reduced future projection variation due to climate shifts.

Range geography and temperature variability explain cross-continental convergence in range and phenology shifts in a model insect taxon

The paper examines range and phenology shifts in odonates across Europe and North America, finding that species with greater poleward range shifts also showed earlier phenological shifts, and temperature variability hindered range shifts.

Climate risk for Italian habitats

The paper assesses climate risk for 139 Italian habitats in 2050 using analog velocity and magnitude metrics, finding high magnitude exposure for most habitats.

Impacts of sea level rise on an endemic butterfly and its freshwater wetland habitat in the Florida Keys

This study examines how sea level rise affects a butterfly and its host plant in Florida Keys wetlands, finding population declines but no significant range contraction.

Projecting spatiotemporal bioclimatic niche dynamics of endemic Pyrenean plant species under climate change: how much will we lose?

This study projects climate change impacts on Pyrenean endemic plant species by 2100, finding 69% will lose over 75% of their bioclimatic niche under high-emission scenarios.

Field-validation of multiple species distribution models shows variation in performance for predicting Aedes albopictus distributions at the invasion edge

The paper evaluates multiple species distribution models for predicting Aedes albopictus distributions at its invasion edge using field-validation and finds variation in model performance across validation methods and invasion stages.

Diverging effects of global change on future invasion risks of Agama picticauda between invaded regions: same problem, different solutions

The paper predicts future invasion risks of Agama picticauda under climate and land use changes, finding divergent regional impacts and recommending targeted mitigation strategies.

Different dispersal rates and declining climate suitability shape future vegetation compositions across the Arctic

The paper predicts future Arctic plant distributions under climate change, finding that dispersal limitations and climate suitability declines will shape vegetation composition changes by 2100.

Estimating scale-dependent covariate responses using two-dimensional diffusion derived from the SPDE method

This paper introduces a covariate-diffusion method to model non-local environmental responses in species distribution models, showing it recovers non-local effects and collapses to local responses when appropriate.

Predicting current and future distribution of the common waxbill using a mechanistic modelling approach

This study uses a mechanistic species distribution model to predict current and future ranges of the common waxbill, identifying climate-driven expansion risks in Europe.

jsdmstan: An R package for fitting joint species distribution models in Stan

The paper introduces an R package for fitting joint species distribution models using Stan, demonstrating its ability to recover ecological patterns from real data.

Data integration with uneven spatiotemporal coverage: A point-process approach for dynamic species distribution models

This paper integrates structured and opportunistic species distribution data using a spatiotemporal model to improve predictions for mobile species.