Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

Stochastic failure accumulation as a foundation for exponential mortality and selective disappearance

The paper develops a mathematical framework for demographic senescence, showing how interdependent sub-systems lead to faster senescence and Gompertz-Makeham mortality patterns.

Humans exhibit demographic buffering against variability and persistence in inflation environments

The paper examines how inflation variability and persistence affect demographic buffering in humans across 32 countries, finding increased stochastic sensitivity but no adverse effects on buffering capacity.

A unified framework links infant vulnerability with aging-related mortality dynamics

The paper shows that stochastic threshold models can explain both early-life and late-life mortality dynamics by incorporating neonatal vulnerability, using U.S. health data.

The probable numbers of kin in a multi-state population: a branching process approach

The paper develops a branching process framework to calculate kin-number distributions structured by age and stage, applying it to UK fertility and mortality data.

Kin-number distributions over age, sex, and time

This paper develops a mathematical model to predict kin numbers by age, sex, and time, accounting for demographic changes and stochasticity.

Supercentenarian and remarkable age records exhibit patterns indicative of clerical errors and pension fraud

This study identifies patterns of fraud and error in supercentenarian records, showing that birth certificates and specific date distributions indicate unreliable age claims.

Hybrid Deep Learning and Lee-Carter Model for Mortality Forecasting: A Study of US Adults Aged 35-80

This paper combines LSTM and the Lee-Carter model to improve mortality forecasts for US adults aged 35-80, finding that LSTM enhances predictive accuracy.

Human life expectancies are still rising

The paper updates demographic data showing that human lifespans continue to increase globally, supporting Oeppen and Vaupel's original hypothesis over Olshansky's claim of a lifespan ceiling.

Human populations with low survival at advanced ages and postponed fertility reduce long-term growth in high inflation environments

This study shows that lower inflation environments lead to higher stochastic population growth rates, driven by better survival and fertility at older ages and later reproductive years.

A Mixture Model for Finite But Unbounded Human Lifetimes

The paper proposes a mixture model for human lifetimes that accounts for finite individual lifespans and collectively unbounded lifetimes, predicting some individuals will live past 120 but few will reach 125.

A Mixture Model Incorporating Individual Heterogeneity in Human Lifetimes

The paper constructs a population model of human lifetimes with a finite upper bound on longevity, differing from claims of unbounded human lifetimes.

Global patterns of human ageing

The paper analyzes mortality data to show significant variation in human ageing rates across populations.