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Virus genomes reveal the factors that spread and sustained the West African Ebola epidemic.

This study analyzes 1600 Ebola virus genomes to show viral spread followed a gravity model, with cross-border transmission before border closures contributing to an international epidemic.

Containing Emerging Epidemics: a Quantitative Comparison of Quarantine and Symptom Monitoring

This paper compares the effectiveness of quarantine and symptom monitoring in controlling epidemics using a mathematical model of seven diseases, showing how intervention success depends on disease characteristics and healthcare settings.

Using simulation to aid trial design: ring-vaccination trials

This paper uses simulation to design ring-vaccination trials for Ebola-like diseases, finding that sample size and effectiveness estimates depend on vaccine properties and trial design parameters.

The impact of the newly licensed dengue vaccine in endemic countries

This paper uses mathematical modeling to evaluate the impact of the dengue vaccine Dengvaxia, showing that vaccinating only partially immune individuals reduces disease burden significantly.

Association of environmental markers with childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus revealed by a long questionnaire on early life exposures and lifestyle in a case-control study

This study identifies environmental factors associated with childhood type 1 diabetes using a detailed questionnaire in a case-control study.

Modelling the impact of curtailing antibiotic usage in food animals on antibiotic resistance in humans

A two-population mathematical model indicates that curtailing antibiotic use in food animals alone has little effect on human antibiotic resistance unless cross-species transmission is also reduced.

Prevalence of Zika virus infection in wild African primates

A dengue-recalibrated ZIKV NS1 IgG ELISA detects prior Zika exposure in 16% of Gambian vervets and 4.9% of Tanzanian baboons among 239 wild African primates.

Dynamic forecasting of Zika epidemics using Google Trends

Incorporating Zika-related Google Trends search volumes as an external regressor in an ARIMA(0, 1, 3) model enables eight-week dynamic forecasting of cumulative Zika virus cases across the Americas.

Quantitative, model-based estimates of variability in the serial interval of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

The paper estimates the serial interval of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using mathematical models and empirical data, identifying factors that contribute to variability in transmission dynamics.

Remote effect of Insecticide-treated nets and the personal protection against malaria mosquito bites

The paper analyzes the deterrent and personal protection effects of unwashed and washed ITNs using EHT data from West Africa, showing significant deterrence in some unwashed nets but reduced effectiveness after washing.

Industry-wide surveillance of Marek’s disease virus on commercial poultry farms: underlying potential for virulence evolution and vaccine escape

This study surveils Marek’s disease virus on poultry farms to assess its prevalence and dynamics, finding that operation (company) is the most significant factor influencing virus detectability.

The Causal Effects of Education on Health, Mortality, Cognition, Well-being, and Income in the UK Biobank

This study uses a natural experiment to estimate the causal effects of education on health, mortality, cognition, well-being, and income using UK Biobank data.

Design of Vaccine Trials during Outbreaks with and without a Delayed Vaccination Comparator

The paper designs a framework to assess vaccine efficacy during outbreaks, considering delayed vaccination comparators and biases in per protocol analysis periods.

Assessing the public health impact of tolerance-based therapies with mathematical models

This study uses mathematical models to show that tolerance-based therapies may increase disease prevalence and mortality, outperforming conventional treatments in public health outcomes.

Real-time Zika risk assessment in the United States

This paper develops a real-time risk assessment framework for Zika Virus in the US, identifying regions at risk of importation and sustained transmission.

Zika virus infection as a cause of congenital brain abnormalities and Guillain-Barre syndrome: systematic review

This paper updates and re-assesses evidence linking Zika virus infection to congenital brain abnormalities and Guillain-Barre syndrome through a systematic review and expert assessment.

Telomere, epigenetic clock, and biomarker-composite quantifications of biological aging: Do they measure the same thing?

This study evaluates seven biological aging measures in middle-aged humans, finding low agreement between them and modest associations with aging-related outcomes.

Ending AIDS: Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and TB in South Africa

This paper models HIV and TB trends in South Africa under two scenarios, finding that expanded treatment and prevention can end AIDS by 2030.

Inference of direction, diversity, and frequency of HIV-1 transmission using approximate Bayesian computation

This study uses approximate Bayesian computation to infer HIV-1 transmission direction, diversity, and frequency, finding that a single transmission model better explains the data than ongoing transmission.

Analysis of infection biomarkers within a Bayesian framework reveals their role in pneumococcal pneumonia diagnosis in HIV patients

This paper applies a Bayesian framework to analyze infection biomarkers in HIV patients with pneumonia, identifying CRP, PCT, and lytA as significant predictors and demonstrating the value of continuous likelihood ratios over dichotomous cutoffs.