Jeffrey Andrew Royle

This paper examines how data augmentation affects uncertainty estimates in ecological models by analyzing the impact of a fixed superpopulation size on variance constraints.

The paper models elevational shifts in endemic bird densities in Hawaii's Kau Rainforest from 2002 to 2024, showing upward range shifts linked to climate change and mosquito invasions.

The paper analyzes a 30-year capture-recapture dataset to show a 67% population decline in Eastern box turtles, attributed to reduced recruitment rather than survival rates.

The paper estimates species-specific U.S. waterfowl harvest with uncertainty using Bayesian methods combining total harvest and species composition data.

The paper evaluates detectability of Eastern box turtles in visual search surveys, finding that 50% of shells were detected, with significant observer variation.