Germline regulation of tumor evolutionary dynamics shapes multiple myeloma progression

Abstract

Germline variation shapes cancer risk, yet its influence on the evolutionary dynamics of established tumors remains poorly understood. In multiple myeloma, subclonal diversification drives disease progression and treatment failure, but the heritable factors that modulate this process are unknown. Here, we show that germline variation is associated with tumor evolutionary features, implicating inherited regulation in subclonal expansion. Integrating germline variation with tumor evolutionary parameters identifies variants associated with evolutionary features, with signals enriched in regulatory regions, consistent with a transcriptional basis. We further identify TBKBP1 as a key locus linking germline variation to tumor evolution and clinical outcome. Germline variation at this locus is associated with TBKBP1 expression and subclonal expansion, and TBKBP1 expression correlates with adverse prognosis, consistent across independent cohorts. Functional analyses demonstrate that TBKBP1 promotes proliferation and activates MYC, mTORC1 and non-canonical NF-{kappa}B signaling pathway. Together, these findings establish germline regulatory variation as a determinant of tumor evolutionary dynamics and identify TBKBP1 as a mediator linking inherited variation to subclonal expansion and disease progression in multiple myeloma.