On Statistical Power for Case-Control Host Genomic Studies of COVID-19

The identification of genetic variation that directly impacts infection susceptibility and disease severity of COVID-19 is an important step towards risk stratification, personalized treatment plans, therapeutic and vaccine development and deployment. Given the importance of study design in infectious disease genetic epidemiology, we use simulation and draw on current estimates of exposure, infectivity and test accuracy of COVID-19 to demonstrate the feasibility of detecting host genetic factors associated with susceptibility and severity with published COVID-19 study designs. We demonstrate why studying susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection could be futile at the early stages of the pandemic. Our insights can aid in the interpretation of genetic findings emerging in the literature and guide the design of future host genetic studies.