No evidence for short-term evolutionary response to a warming environment in Drosophila

Abstract

Adaptive evolution is key in mediating responses to climate change. Such evolution will expectedly lead to changes in the populations thermal reaction norm and improve their ability to cope with stressful conditions. Conversely, constraints of different nature might limit the adaptive response. Here, we test these expectations by performing a real-time evolution experiment in historically differentiated Drosophila subobscura populations. We address the phenotypic changes of flies evolving for nine generations in a daily fluctuating environment with average constant temperature, or a warming environment with increasing average and amplitude temperature across generations. Our results showed that (1) evolution under a global warming scenario has not led, so far, to a noticeable change in the thermal response; (2) historical background appears to be affecting the responses of populations under the warming environment, particularly at higher temperatures; (3) thermal reaction norms are trait-dependent: while lifelong exposure to low temperature decreases fecundity and productivity but not viability, high temperature causes negative transgenerational effects on productivity and viability, even though fecundity remains high. These findings raise concerns about the short-term efficiency of adaptive responses to the current changing climate.