Ciprofloxacin resistance in Klebsiella pneumoniae: phenotype prediction from genotype and global distribution of resistance determinants

BACKGROUNDCiprofloxacin resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae is common or emerging in many geographies, and knowledge of local resistance rates is important for empirical therapy. Whilst there are known K. pneumoniae ciprofloxacin resistance determinants, there is a lack of systematic data on the effect of determinants, alone and in combination, and there are no publicly accessible tools for predicting resistance from whole genome sequence data. METHODSThe KlebNET-GSP AMR Genotype-Phenotype Group aggregated a matched genotype-phenotype dataset of n=12,167 K. pneumoniae species complex (KpSC) isolates from 27 countries between 2001-2021. We developed a rules-based classifier to predict ciprofloxacin resistance by categorizing the number of quinolone resistance determining regions mutations in gyrA and parC, the number of plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance genes, and the presence/absence of aac(6')-Ib-cr (which can acetylate ciprofloxacin). Predictive performance was assessed using the discovery dataset, for which we re-phenotyped discrepant isolates; and validated using externally contributed datasets (n=7,030 KpSC isolates). RESULTSThe rules-based classifier predicted R vs S/I with categorical agreement, sensitivity, and specificity >96%, and major/very major error rates <4%. Performance was similar across diverse KpSC sources (human, animal, other), species, and intra-species lineages. External validation of the classifier yielded overall 93.12% categorical agreement [95% confidence interval (CI), 92.50-93.74%], 8.65% major errors [95% CI, 7.34-9.97%], and 6.20% very major errors [95% CI, 5.51-6.90%]. We implemented the classifier in Kleborate, a command-line tool that is integrated into the Pathogenwatch web platform. Using this to assess the global distribution of ciprofloxacin resistance determinants in KpSC genomes available in Pathogenwatch (n=31,319, from 109 countries between years 2000-2023), we observed a significant positive association between national quinolone consumption rates and predicted ciprofloxacin resistance (R2=0.20, p=0.004). CONCLUSIONS Ciprofloxacin resistance phenotypes can be reasonably predicted from genotypes, which is sufficient for informing surveillance. However, unexplained resistance remains and accuracy is insufficient for clinical applications. We demonstrate the value of aggregating genotype-phenotype data to explore resistance mechanisms and develop predictors, but highlight complexities in combining phenotype data from different assays and standards.