Environmental and Historical Determinants of African Horse Sickness: Insights from Predictive Modeling

Abstract

This study marks a pioneering effort in analyzing the global epidemiological patterns of African Horse Sickness (AHS) across different regions. By employing predictive modeling with a comprehensive set of environmental variables, we uncovered overarching global patterns in AHS dynamics, a first in this field. Our analysis revealed significant regional differences influenced by specific climatic conditions, highlighting the diseases complexity. The study also identifies new high-risk areas for AHS, underscoring the necessity for regionally tailored disease management strategies. Despite some limitations, such as the exclusion of wild equine data, this research offers critical insights for global AHS intervention and prevention, setting a path for future research incorporating broader datasets and socio-economic factors. Author SummaryAHS presents a significant challenge to the global equine industry, impacting both health and economic aspects. Our study highlights the profound effect of climate change, particularly the frequency of extreme climatic events including temperature and humidity variations, on the transmission dynamics of diseases like AHS. In our research, we focused on overcoming the challenges associated with identifying key environmental factors and determining the appropriate geographic scale for a comprehensive global understanding of AHS. Our aim was to bridge existing knowledge gaps and elucidate the fundamental principles governing AHS transmission. This study establishes a solid foundation for understanding the intricate dynamics of AHS and offers practical pathways for conservation efforts. It emphasizes the urgent need for environmentally conscious strategies to protect horse populations and the industries dependent on them. By highlighting the relationship between environmental factors, vector presence, and AHS transmission, our research underscores the importance of a holistic approach to disease mitigation. In conclusion, the findings of our study not only contribute to the scientific understanding of AHS but also serve as a guide for policymakers and practitioners in developing effective strategies for disease management and prevention, tailored to the specific environmental conditions and challenges faced in different regions around the world.