Climatic Influence on COVID-19: Investigating the Role of Temperature and Humidity in the Spread of the Omicron Variant

Abstract

Understanding how climate modulates infectious disease dynamics is critical for anticipating epidemic patterns. This study examines the association between climatological variables--specifically temperature and relative humidity--and the incidence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) during its global wave (2021-2022). Using global epidemiological and climate data, we applied Scale-Dependent Correlation (SDC) analysis to detect transient, scale-specific associations across regions and periods. We identified consistent negative correlations between incidence and both temperature and humidity, especially in mid-latitudes during colder months. These findings were compared with predictions from stochastic population-based compartmental models incorporating climate-dependent transmission parameters. Among the tested formulations, the temperature-based model achieved the best fit to observed case trajectories. Our results highlight a robust climatological influence on Omicron transmission dynamics and underscore the importance of integrating climate indicators into epidemic modeling and preparedness strategies.