J. O. Lloyd-Smith

Navigating cross-reactivity and host species effects in a serological assay: A case study of the microscopic agglutination test for Leptospira serology

This paper examines cross-reactivity and host species effects in serological data using MAT for Leptospira, showing that antibody titers vary by host and lab, and that high titers do not reliably indicate the infecting serovar.

Transoceanic pathogen circulation in the age of sail and steam

The paper uses mathematical modeling to quantify historical risks of shipborne pathogen introduction, showing that steam travel and frequent large-scale human movement increased transoceanic pathogen circulation risks.

Reconstructing prevalence dynamics of wildlife pathogens from pooled and individual samples

This paper introduces a Bayesian multilevel model to estimate prevalence dynamics from pooled and individual wildlife samples, accounting for dilution effects and false negatives.

Periodic shifts in viral load increase risk of spillover from bats

The paper shows that periodic increases in viral load during high prevalence periods in bats correlate with spillover events, suggesting viral load is a better predictor of transmission risk than prevalence alone.

PCR data accurately predict infectious virus: a characterization of SARS-CoV-2 in non-human primates

The paper develops statistical models to predict infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus from PCR data in non-human primates, showing high accuracy in predicting subgenomic RNA and culture positivity.

Stability of mpox (monkeypox) virus in bodily fluids and wastewater

This study investigates the stability of MPXV in bodily fluids and wastewater, finding it remains infectious in protein-rich fluids and is effectively neutralized by chlorination.

Variability in donor lung culture and relative humidity impact the stability of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus on nonporous surfaces

This study examines how donor lung culture variability and relative humidity affect the stability of H1N1pdm09 virus on nonporous surfaces, finding that donor differences impact persistence more than surface material.

Comparative aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

This study compares aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 variants, finding early VOCs more stable than WA1, but Delta and Omicron do not show increased stability, suggesting stability changes are not the main driver of transmissibility.

Inferring time of infection from field data using dynamic models of antibody decay

The paper develops a Bayesian dynamic model to estimate infection times from antibody decay data, improving accuracy in wildlife disease ecology.

Host and viral determinants of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Syrian hamster

This study investigates how SARS-CoV-2 infection affects airborne transmission in Syrian hamsters, finding that viral shedding and transmission efficiency vary by host and virus factors.

Community health and human-animal contacts on the edges of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda

This study examines human-animal contacts and health in a community near Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, identifying opportunities for cross-species pathogen transmission.

Mechanistic theory predicts the effects of temperature and humidity on inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and other enveloped viruses

The paper develops a mechanistic model to predict how temperature and humidity affect the inactivation rate of SARS-CoV-2 and other enveloped viruses.

Heat-treated virus inactivation rate depends strongly on treatment procedure: illustration with SARS-CoV-2

This study shows that heat treatment of SARS-CoV-2 in liquid specimens varies greatly depending on the container used, with closed vials incurring much faster inactivation than uncovered plates.

Predominance of positive epistasis among drug resistance-associated mutations in HIV-1 protease

The paper profiles the fitness landscape of HIV-1 protease resistance mutations and finds that positive epistasis is predominant, reducing the likelihood of reversing drug resistance mutations.

Mapping the Host-Pathogen Space to Link Longitudinal and Cross-sectional Biomarker Data: Leptospira Infection in California Sea Lions (Zalophus californianus) as a Case Study

The paper maps host-pathogen interactions using quantitative biomarker data to understand disease dynamics in California sea lions, revealing a unidirectional disease trajectory that applies to both longitudinal and cross-sectional datasets.