Flexible belief updating drives the childhood advantage in statistical learning

Abstract

Children often outperform adults in probabilistic statistical learning tasks, yet the mechanisms underlying this developmental advantage remain poorly understood. Here, we used eye-tracking measures of belief updating to examine how children and adults acquire and update predictions in a probabilistic sequence-learning task. Using the standard (oculomotor) reaction time measure, children showed stronger statistical learning than adults, replicating previous behavioral findings while revealing a more detailed profile of developmental differences in statistical learning. Critically, children updated their predictions more frequently: they were less likely to repeat previous predictions and more likely to shift their expectations in response to new input. Adults, in contrast, showed greater persistence, tending to maintain prior predictions even when those predictions were inconsistent with the underlying statistical structure. Despite these pronounced differences in updating behavior, the processing and use of prediction errors were remarkably similar across age groups. These findings indicate that developmental differences in statistical learning do not primarily arise from how prediction errors are computed, but rather from how prior beliefs and incoming information are weighted during belief updating. Childrens enhanced learning may therefore reflect reduced reliance on stable priors and greater sensitivity to current sensory evidence, supporting a more exploratory learning strategy. Adults, by contrast, appear to favor an exploitative strategy that stabilizes existing predictions but reduces flexibility in probabilistic environments. More broadly, the results suggest that developmental changes in statistical learning may reflect age-related differences in how readily learners revise their predictions in response to incoming evidence. By integrating sensitive oculomotor measures with analyses that probe the mechanisms underlying belief updating, the present study provides a more fine-grained account of how predictive learning changes across development and offers a framework for reconciling previously inconsistent developmental findings in statistical learning.