Model-Based Meta-Analysis of Relapsing Mouse Model Studies from the Critical Path to Tuberculosis Drug Regimens Initiative Database

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB), the disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), remains a leading infectious disease-related cause of death worldwide, necessitating the development of new and improved treatment regimens. Non-clinical evaluation of candidate drug combinations via the relapsing mouse model (RMM) is an important step in regimen development, through which candidate regimens that provide the greatest decrease in probability of relapse following treatment in mice may be identified for further development. Although RMM studies are a critical tool to evaluate regimen efficacy, making comprehensive "apples to apples" comparisons of regimen performance in the RMM has been a challenge, in large part due to the need to evaluate and adjust for variability across studies arising from differences in design and execution. To address this knowledge gap, we performed a model-based meta-analysis on data for 17 unique regimens obtained from a total of 1592 mice across 28 RMM studies. Specifically, a mixed-effects logistic regression model was developed that described the treatment duration-dependent probability of relapse for each regimen and identified relevant covariates contributing to inter-study variability. Using the model, covariate-normalized metrics of interest, namely treatment duration required to reach 50% and 10% relapse probability, were derived and used to compare relative regimen performance. Overall, the model-based meta-analysis approach presented herein enables cross-study comparison of efficacy in the RMM, and provides a framework whereby data from emerging studies may be analyzed in the context of historical data to aid in selecting candidate drug combinations for clinical evaluation as TB drug regimens.