EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks

Abstract

The rapid intensification of poultry production raises important concerns about the associated risks of zoonotic infections. Here, we introduce EPINEST (EPI-demic NEtwork Simulation in poultry Transportation systems): an agent-based modelling designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. The modular structure of the model allows for easy parameterization to suit specific countries and system configurations. Moreover, the framework enables the replication of a wide range of eco-epidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST was developed in the context of an interdisciplinary multicentre study conducted in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and will facilitate the investigation of the spreading patterns of various health hazards such as avian influenza, Campylobacter, Salmonella and antimicrobial resistance in these countries. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.