Synchrony of Bird Migration with Avian Influenza Global Spread; Implications for Vulnerable Bird Orders

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5 clade 2.3.4.4 has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, it is unclear how seasonal bird migration facilitates global virus dispersal, and which avian species are exposed to HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses and where. To shed light on ongoing global outbreaks, we sought to explore these questions through phylodynamic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences. First, based on viral phylogeography and bird migration networks, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing vulnerable bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 lineage movements. Notably, we highlight the potential importance of relatively under-discussed Suliformes and Ciconiiformes, in addition to Anseriformes and Charadriiformes, in virus lineage movements. Our study provides a phylodynamic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behaviour and life history in avian influenza studies.