Carry-over effects of larval microclimate on the transmission potential of a mosquito-borne pathogen

Climate shapes the transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens through impacts on both the vector and the pathogen. In addition to direct effects of the environment, carry-over effects from previous life history stages can influence mosquito traits relevant to disease transmission. While this has been explored in a laboratory setting, the net effect of temperature-mediated carry-over effects due to relevant environmental variation in the larval stage is ambiguous. Here, we use data collected from a semi-field experiment investigating dengue dynamics in Aedes albopictus across a natural environmental gradient to parameterize a dengue transmission model. We reared Ae. albopictus across three different land classes characterized by their proportion of impervious surface. Emerged females were offered a dengue infectious bloodmeal, kept at a constant 27 {degrees}C, and assayed for infection, dissemination, and infectiousness 21 days post infection. Incorporating carry-over effects of larval environment on measures of vector competence resulted in lower predicted dengue transmission potential across land class and season, however a strong positive relationship with larval environmental temperature remained. Given the significant impact of carry-over effects, future mechanistic models of disease transmission should include both direct and carry-over effects of environmental temperature.