Model-based analysis of positive selection significantly expands the list of cancer driver genes, including RNA methyltransferases

Abstract

Identifying driver genes is a central problem in cancer biology, and many methods have been developed to identify driver genes from somatic mutation data. However, existing methods either lack explicit statistical models, or rely on very simple models that do not capture complex features in somatic mutations of driver genes. Here, we present driverMAPS (Model-based Analysis of Positive Selection), a more comprehensive model-based approach to driver gene identification. This new method explicitly models, at the single-base level, the effects of positive selection in cancer driver genes as well as highly heterogeneous background mutational process. Its selection model captures elevated mutation rates in functionally important sites using multiple external annotations, as well as spatial clustering of mutations. Its background mutation model accounts for both known covariates and unexplained local variation. Simulations under realistic evolutionary models demonstrate that driverMAPS greatly improves the power of driver gene detection over state-of-the-art approaches. Applying driverMAPS to TCGA data across 20 tumor types identified 159 new potential driver genes. Cross-referencing this list with data from external sources strongly supports these findings. The novel genes include the mRNA methytransferases METTL3-METTL14, and we experimentally validated METTL3 as a potential tumor suppressor gene in bladder cancer. Our results thus provide strong support to the emerging hypothesis that mRNA modification is an important biological process underlying tumorigenesis.