From North to South: Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm09 Swine Influenza A Viruses in Italy

Abstract

The influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus continues to be a significant pathogen, posing potential risks to both animal and human health due to its zoonotic potential. Italy, which has one of the largest swine populations in Europe, plays a crucial role in monitoring the evolution of influenza viruses in livestock. This study aims to address the existing knowledge gaps regarding the genetic diversity and transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm09 circulating in Italian swine populations. Utilizing whole genome sequencing and dynamic modeling, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of virus samples collected from swine farms across Italy. Our results reveal that multiple independent viral introductions have occurred into the country, with most cases resulting in self-limited infections and limited onward transmission. However, six distinct transmission clusters were identified, suggesting instances of sustained viral spread. These clusters were found across multiple regions of Italy, highlighting the broad geographic distribution of virus lineages. Our findings indicate that while many introductions led to localized containment, certain virus lineages were able to spread within specific regions of Italy. Through a detailed examination of selective pressures, we observed that most viral genes are under strong purifying selection in both swine and human hosts, as reflected by dN/dS ratios well below 1. The hemagglutinin (HA) gene exhibited a notably higher dN/dS ratio in swine ([~]0.28) compared to humans ([~]0.22), indicating slightly relaxed selection in swine. In contrast, other genes, such as neuraminidase (NA) and non-structural protein (NS), showed similarly strong purifying selection across both hosts. These results reflect a general trend of selective pressures affecting multiple viral components, rather than emphasizing specific genes. Our study emphasizes the importance of ongoing genomic surveillance in detecting viral circulation and mitigating risks to both animal and public health. Italys efforts contribute significantly to global influenza monitoring and highlight the importance of a One Health approach that integrates human, animal, and environmental health. These findings provide essential data to inform public health policies and enhance preparedness against future zoonotic influenza outbreaks.