Strong neutral sweeps occurring during a population contraction

Abstract

A strong reduction in diversity around a specific locus is often interpreted as a recent rapid fixation of a positively selected allele, a phenomenon called a selective sweep. Rapid fixation of neutral variants can however lead to similar reduction in local diversity, especially when the population experiences changes in population size, e.g., bottlenecks or range expansions. The fact that demographic processes can lead to signals of nucleotide diversity very similar to signals of selective sweeps is at the core of an ongoing discussion about the roles of demography and natural selection in shaping patterns of neutral variation. Here we quantitatively investigate the shape of such neutral valleys of diversity under a simple model of a single population size change, and we compare it to signals of a selective sweep. We analytically describe the expected shape of such "neutral sweeps" and show that selective sweep valleys of diversity are, for the same fixation time, wider than neutral valleys. On the other hand, it is always possible to parametrize our model to find a neutral valley that has the same width as a given selected valley. We apply our framework to the case of a putative selective sweep signal around the gene Quetzalcoatl in D. melanogaster and show that the valley of diversity in the vicinity of this gene is compatible with a short bottleneck scenario without selection. Our findings provide further insight in how simple demographic models can create valleys of genetic diversity that may falsely be attributed to positive selection.