Strong and consistent associations of waterbird community composition with HPAI H5 occurrence in European wild birds

Abstract

Since 2014, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have been dominating the outbreaks across Europe, causing massive deaths among poultry and wild birds. However, the factors shaping its broad-scale outbreak patterns remain unclear. With extensive waterbird survey datasets of about 7,000 sites across Europe, we here demonstrated that H5N8 occurrence in wild birds in the 2016/17 and 2020/21 epidemics as well as H5N1 occurrence in 2005/06 epidemic were strongly associated with very similar waterbird community attributes, pointing to the possibility of similar interspecific transmission processes between different epidemics. A simple extrapolation of the model constructed from the 2016/17 epidemic can well predict the H5N8 pattern in wild birds in 2020/21 epidemic. We also found a dilution effect of phylogenetic diversity that was always negatively correlated with H5 occurrence in wild birds. In contrast, H5N8 occurrence in poultry was subject to different risk factors between the two epidemics. In general, waterbird community composition play a much more important role in determining the spatial pattern of H5N8 in wild birds than in poultry. Our work contributes to reveal the factors driving H5N8 patterns, and highlights the value of waterbird community factors in future HPAI surveillance and prediction.