Short-term, long-term, and genetic determinants of human plasma proteome variability

Plasma proteomics is increasingly used for biomarker discovery and predictive modeling, yet diurnal protein trajectories remain insufficiently characterized. In our review of recent proteomic biomarker studies, 43% of the identified biomarkers had previously been reported to display 24-h rhythmicity. We demonstrate that ignoring these short-term dynamic effects compromises the robustness of reported models predicting health outcomes. We integrated a population-scale multi-ethnic longitudinal cohort with repeated measures over 10 years, with two cohorts of healthy adults undergoing frequent plasma sampling across days under controlled circadian, sleep and food-intake conditions. This design enabled estimation of short-term intraindividual variability (ST), long-term intraindividual variability (LT), population-level variability (POP) and genetic effects (GEN) across 7,289 protein targets. ST, LT, POP, and GEN define diverse protein trajectories, including rapid dynamics, long-term change, and individual-specific signatures. Using and generalizing this framework will facilitate covariate selection, study design, biomarker prioritization, and variability-aware modeling by users of proteomic data.