Reverse engineering morphogenesis through Bayesian optimization of physics-based models

Abstract

Morphogenetic programs direct the cell signaling and nonlinear mechanical interactions between multiple cell types and tissue layers to define organ shape and size. A key challenge for systems and synthetic biology is determining optimal combinations of intra- and inter-cellular interactions to predict an organs shape, size, and function. Physics-based mechanistic models that define the subcellular force distribution facilitate this, but it is extremely challenging to calibrate parameters in these models from data. To solve this inverse problem, we created a Bayesian optimization framework to determine the optimal cellular force distribution such that the predicted organ shapes match the desired organ shapes observed within the experimental imaging data. This integrative framework employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), a non-parametric kernel-based probabilistic machine learning modeling paradigm, to learn the mapping functions relating to the morphogenetic programs that generate and maintain the final organ shape. We calibrated and tested the method on cross-sections of Drosophila wing imaginal discs, a highly informative model organ system, to study mechanisms that regulate epithelial processes that range from development to cancer. As a specific test case, the parameter estimation framework successfully infers the underlying changes in core parameters needed to match simulation data with time series imaging data of wing discs perturbed with collagenase. Unexpectedly, the framework also identifies multiple distinct parameter sets that generate shapes similar to wild-type organ shapes. This platform enables an efficient, global sensitivity analysis to support the necessity of both actomyosin contractility and basal ECM stiffness to generate and maintain the curved shape of the wing imaginal disc. The optimization framework, combined with fixed tissue imaging, identified that Piezo, a mechanosensitive ion channel, impacts fold formation by regulating the apical-basal balance of actomyosin contractility and elasticity of ECM. This framework is extensible toward reverse-engineering the morphogenesis of any organ system and can be utilized in real-time control of complex multicellular systems.