Back to basics: Observed statistics are sufficient to predict drug responses

Abstract

Predicting how cells, tissues, and patients will respond to a drug, cytokine, or genetic perturbation is central to biological and clinical reasoning. The practical goal is to estimate the analysis-ready readouts that support this reasoning: which cellular responses are context-dependent, which perturbations reveal shared or divergent mechanisms, and which observations should become the basis for the next experiment. Here we introduce Rhaister, a perturbation-response predictor that operates directly on screen-level summary statistics. By measuring just a few perturbations in a new biological context, Rhaister predicts the unmeasured perturbations by learning how response patterns vary across reference contexts. This formulation applies to both fine-grained molecular readouts, such as transcriptional responses from Tahoe-100M or other large perturbation screen, or on phenotypic endpoints. To train and apply Rhaister on pheno-typic endpoints we created Emerald Bay, a purpose-built Tahoe dataset that unifies multi-day cancer drug perturbation, pooled Mosaic tumor contexts, and paired transcriptomic response measurements*. Across these settings, Rhaister matches or exceeds substantially more expensive virtual-cell models, often achieving the highest values possible in evaluation metrics, while training in seconds and running predictions in milliseconds. On Emerald Bay, Rhaister predicts context-specific drug phenotypes from sensitivity measurements alone and improves further when including transcriptomic information. We also introduce Rhaister-O, predicting drug responses in new contexts from baseline expression alone and, to our knowledge, provides the first zero-shot model for this task. Rhaister establishes summary-statistic perturbation modeling as a fast, interpretable framework for predicting biological response across new contexts.