A non-coding A-to-T Kozak site change related to the transmissibility of Alpha, Delta and Omicron VOCs

Abstract

Three prevalent SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOCs) were emerged and caused epidemic waves. It is essential to uncover the key genetic changes that cause the high transmissibility of VOCs. However, different viral mutations are generally tightly linked so traditional population genetic methods may not reliably detect beneficial mutation. In this study, we proposed a new pandemic-scale phylogenomic approach to detect mutations crucial to transmissibility. We analyzed 3,646,973 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences and the epidemiology metadata. Based on the sequential occurrence order of mutations and the instantaneously accelerated furcation rate, the analysis revealed that two non-coding mutations at the position of 28271 (g.a28271-/t) might be crucial for the high transmissibility of Alpha, Delta and Omicron VOCs. Both two mutations cause an A-to-T change at the core Kozak site of the N gene. The analysis also revealed that the non-coding mutations (g.a28271-/t) alone are unlikely to cause high viral transmissibility, indicating epistasis or multilocus interaction in viral transmissibility. A convergent evolutionary analysis revealed that g.a28271-/t, S:P681H/R and N:R203K/M occur independently in the three-VOC lineages, suggesting a potential interaction among these mutations. Therefore, this study unveils that non-synonymous and non-coding mutations could affect the transmissibility synergistically.