Critical role of DNA unwinding and Cas9 conformational changes in modelling off-target effects

CRISPR-Cas9 off-target effects interfere with the ability to accurately perform genetic edits. To predict off-target effects CRISPR-Cas9 researchers perform high throughput guide RNA mismatch and bulge experiments and then use the data to fit thermodynamic binding models. While impactful from an engineering perspective such models are not based on the experimentally observed target interrogation process and thus incorrectly measure the energetic effects mismatches have on the system. In this work we convert an experimentally deduced qualitive model of target interrogation to a linear ODE model and demonstrate that the mismatch tolerance patterns observed in experiments do not need to be caused by differences in energetic penalties of mismatches but rather are emergent effects of the timing and coordination of target DNA unwinding and Cas9 conformational changes.