Viral burdens are associated with age and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection related sampling bias.

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the impact of viral variant, in addition to other variables, on within-host viral burdens, by analysing cycle threshold (Ct) values derived from nose and throat swabs, collected as part of the UK COVID-19 Infection Survey. Because viral burden distributions determined from community survey data can be biased due to the impact of variant epidemiology on the time-since-infection of samples, we developed a method to explicitly adjust observed Ct value distributions to account for the expected bias. Analysing the adjusted Ct values using partial least squares regression, we found that among unvaccinated individuals with no known prior infection, the average Ct value was 0.94 lower among Alpha variant infections, compared those with the predecessor strain, B.1.177. However, among vaccinated individuals, it was 0.34 lower among Delta variant infections, compared to those with the Alpha variant. In addition, the average Ct value decreased by 0.20 for every 10 year age increment of the infected individual. In summary, within-host viral burdens are associated with age, in addition to the interplay of vaccination status and viral variant.