Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Transient dynamics and counterintuitive competitive performance in periodic environments

The paper shows how periodic environmental fluctuations can lead to counterintuitive competitive outcomes in ecological communities, highlighting the role of seasonal trade-offs and non-equilibrium dynamics.

Multi-strain SIS dynamics with coinfection across heterogeneous patches

The paper develops a spatial SIS model with coinfection and multiple strains to study how spatial structure and host movement affect pathogen dynamics in heterogeneous environments.

Stochastic Modeling and Transient Analysis of Epidemic Extinction Dynamics

The paper analyzes epidemic extinction dynamics by incorporating generation time, showing that shorter generation times can temporarily increase extinction risk.

Resource diversity begets stability in complex ecosystems

The paper resolves May's stability paradox by showing resource diversity stabilizes ecosystems through computer simulations and analytical methods, contradicting May's prediction and highlighting the importance of resource dynamics.

On the structure of multiple stable equilibria in competitive ecological systems

The paper investigates multiple stable equilibria in competitive ecological systems using Lotka-Volterra models, finding that basins of attraction scale exponentially with equilibrium biomass.

Inference and prediction for stochastic models of biological populations undergoing migration and proliferation

This paper reviews parameter inference, identifiability analysis, and model prediction for stochastic agent-based models of biological populations, with a focus on numerical optimization and automatic differentiation, and provides open-source Julia code.

Source-sink dynamics explains the co-existence of the invasive pest Dryocosmus kuriphilus and its biological control agent Torymus sinensis across French Eastern Pyrenees.

The paper models the coexistence of an invasive pest and its biological control agent using source-sink dynamics, showing dispersal rates influence their persistence and impact.

Effects of environmental and individual variation on time patterns of extinction in small experimental populations.

This study investigates how initial life stage and environmental conditions affect extinction times in small populations of Folsomia candida, showing that founder stage effects persist even in established populations.

Stability and diversity of interactions in complex microbiomes

This study uses mathematical models to show that high-order synergistic interactions enhance stability in diverse microbial communities, suggesting their importance for engineered consortia.

Numerical Solution to SIR Model using SBP-SAT operators

This paper introduces a high-order SBP-SAT numerical method for solving the SIR model, demonstrating its accuracy and robustness compared to analytical solutions and other numerical methods.

Wildlife provisioning selects for higher pathogen virulence in hosts with incomplete immunity

The paper models how wildlife food provisioning selects for higher pathogen virulence, leading to potential host population declines due to incomplete immunity.

Individual-based modeling of direct and indirect competition by the glass-box artificial intelligence

This paper develops an individual-based model using explainable AI to demonstrate mechanisms of direct and indirect competition between species, showing how weaker species can outcompete stronger ones and how complete competitors can coexist.

Integrating gene drives with established pest controls to mitigate spillover risk

This study shows integrating gene drives with pest controls can reduce spillover risk by optimizing treatment strategies based on population dynamics and cost-effectiveness.

Maternal antibodies and density dependence affect suppression of host populations by novel pathogens

The paper uses epidemiological models to show that maternal antibodies and density-dependent regulation influence long-term host population suppression by novel pathogens, with outcomes sensitive to factors like R0 and virulence.

The structure of pairwise competition is responsible for sudden regime shifts in a microbe-plasmid model

This study introduces a microbe-plasmid model to analyze plasmid invasion and eradication, showing that competition structure leads to bistability and sudden regime shifts.

Niche Overlap Is Not Enough: Same Overlap, Opposite Dynamics

The paper shows that niche overlap alone does not determine community dynamics, as systems with the same overlap can have opposite temporal correlation patterns due to yield-depletion mismatch.

Multispecies coexistence emerges from pairwise exclusions in communities with competitive hierarchy

This study shows that multi-species coexistence in competitive communities can emerge from pairwise interactions without intransitivity, challenging the assumption that intransitive loops are necessary for emergent coexistence.

Solving three core challenges in transient dynamics analysis of matrix population models

The paper develops a new analytical framework to assess transient dynamics in matrix population models, overcoming three key challenges and demonstrating improved rankings of population models.

Asynchronous population dynamics induced by higher-order andnegative asymmetric ecological interactions

This study models ecosystem population dynamics with higher-order and asymmetric interactions, showing they can induce asynchronous dynamics and increase extinction risk.

Axiomatic Community Ecology, Topology, and Dynamic Distance

The paper develops a mathematical framework to compare ecosystem dynamics using axioms and applies it to marine communities and ecosystem models, showing a unique natural kind of ecosystem under predator-prey assumptions.

Quenching of Chaos in externally driven metacommunities

This study investigates how habitat heterogeneity in drive-response metacommunities quenches chaos in chaotic food webs, leading to steady states and reducing extinction risk.

Structural stability determines evolutionary stability in mutualistic model ecosystems

This study integrates evolutionary adaptation into mutualistic ecosystem models to show that structural stability predicts biodiversity loss under environmental and evolutionary changes.

Bounded environmental stochasticity generates secondary Allee thresholds

This paper shows that bounded environmental fluctuations create secondary Allee thresholds, altering population persistence predictions.

Dispersal-induced persistence of chaotic ecosystems under extremeclimatic events

This study shows that dispersal can help coastal ecosystems persist during tropical cyclones, but excessive dispersal between equally affected areas leads to extinction.

How population control of pests is modulated by density dependence: The perspective of genetic biocontrol

The paper constructs a mathematical model to analyze how density dependence affects genetic biocontrol strategies in pest populations, finding that strong density dependence increases resilience to suppression.

The spatial spread and the persistence of gene drives are affected by demographic feedbacks, density dependence and Allee effects

This paper models how demographic factors affect the spread and persistence of gene drives in populations.

Disentangling the Effects of Intercropping on Vector-Borne Plant Virus Dynamics

This study develops a mathematical model to analyze how intercropping affects vector-borne plant virus dynamics and identifies conditions under which it can reduce or increase disease outbreaks.

Interacting Hosts with Microbiome Exchange: An Extension of Metacommunity Theory for Discrete Interactions

This paper extends metacommunity theory to model discrete microbiome exchanges between hosts, showing that both interaction frequency and strength are critical for microbiome dynamics.

A Single Population Approach to Modeling Growth and Decay in Batch Bioreactors

This paper introduces two new population models to describe microbial growth and decay in batch bioreactors, incorporating memory effects through cumulative biomass.

Label invariance: a guiding principle for ecological models

This paper introduces label invariance as a principle for ecological models, showing it ensures consistency in dynamics across population groupings and aids in model selection and evaluation.