Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Linking power, efficiency, and bifurcations in consumer-resource systems

The paper links power, efficiency, and bifurcations in consumer-resource systems using mathematical models and shows how ecological principles can be formalized and tested.

Memory-based incremental parameter updating of a generic stochastic plant epidemic model

This paper introduces a sequential Monte Carlo method for real-time parameter updating in a stochastic plant epidemic model, showing accurate convergence and forecasting capabilities.

Behavioral variation affects persistence of an experimental food-chain

This study shows that prey dropping behavior reduces food-chain persistence, with dropper treatments having higher extinction risk than mixed or non-dropper treatments.

Improving Joint Estimation of Vital Rates in IPMs via Gaussian Processes and ABC

This paper introduces ABC GP IPM, a flexible IPM framework using Gaussian Processes and Approximate Bayesian Computation to improve demographic modeling across species.

Behavioral plasticity and the valence of indirect interactions

The paper examines how behavioral plasticity in animals can shift indirect interactions in ecological networks from competition to mutualism or parasitism through changes in predator-prey dynamics.

Strengthening intraguild predation increases the temporal variability of biomass across all trophic levels in model food webs

This study shows that increasing intraguild predation (IGP) in food webs leads to greater temporal variability in biomass across all trophic levels, potentially destabilizing ecosystems.

iPAR: A framework for modelling and inferring information about disease spread when the populations at risk are unknown

The paper introduces iPAR, a framework for estimating spatial disease dynamics without knowing the population at risk, and applies it to an ASF outbreak in Estonia.

A continuous-time microparasite model incorporating infection intensity and parasite aggregation

The paper develops a continuous-time microparasite model that incorporates infection intensity and parasite aggregation, showing how these factors influence host-pathogen dynamics.

A unifying principle for multispecies coexistence under resource fluctuations

This paper challenges the assumption that resource fluctuations limit biodiversity by showing how species can coexist through specialization on different temporal resource patterns.

In defense of the original Type I functional response: The frequency and population-dynamic effects of feeding on multiple prey at a time

The paper derives a new functional response model for predators handling multiple prey and shows it can explain coexistence dynamics not captured by traditional Type I, II, or III models.

Destabilizing effects of eco-evolutionary feedback on community stability and the role of climate change

The paper shows eco-evolutionary feedback can destabilize community dynamics in complex systems, and warming exacerbates this effect.

Inference of pairwise interactions from strain frequency data across settings and context-dependent mutual invasibilities

The paper infers pairwise bacterial strain interactions from population frequency data across multiple settings using a replicator dynamics framework applied to Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes.

Chaotic behavior influenced by an environmental parameter in simulated C. elegans populations

This study uses an agent-based model to simulate C. elegans populations and finds that chaotic dynamics emerge depending on culling parameters.

Stabilization of fluctuating population dynamics via the evolution of dormancy

This study shows that population fluctuations favor the evolution of dormancy, which stabilizes dynamics and can lead to coexistence of dormancy strategies.

Simple, universal rules predict trophic interaction strengths

The paper proposes two rules to explain the scaling of trophic interaction strengths using predator functional responses, validated across 2,100 experiments.

Predicting long and short-term species persistence following invasion of ecological communities

The paper introduces a framework to predict species persistence after invasion by analyzing community structure and interaction patterns, demonstrating its application in ecological systems with fluctuating abundances.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of anthelmintic resistance in soil-transmitted helminths

The paper develops an eco-evolutionary model to study anthelmintic resistance spread in helminths, finding that life cycle parameters influence resistance spread rates across species.

Evolution into chaos - implications of the trade-off between transmissibility and immune evasion

The paper develops a model showing viral evolution balances transmissibility and immune evasion, leading to convergence, periodic patterns, or chaos depending on the trade-off.

Optimal foraging for simple organisms, the single-input marginal valuetheorem

The paper extends the Marginal Value Theorem to simple organisms with limited sensory abilities, showing that adjusting feeding speed based on environmental average feeding rates improves foraging efficiency.

Population genetics meets ecology: a guide to individual-based simulations in continuous landscapes

This paper provides a guide to implementing individual-based simulations in continuous landscapes, focusing on population dynamics and ecological applications.

Self-organized coexistence of phage and a population of host colonies

The paper models phage-bacteria coexistence in microcolonies, showing that external bacterial influx affects colony size distribution and steady-state dynamics.

EEMtoolbox: A user-friendly R package for flexible ensemble ecosystem modeling

EEMtoolbox is an R package that enables flexible ensemble ecosystem modeling using either accept-reject or sequential Monte Carlo methods, supporting multiple model structures for conservation applications.

Effect of resistant compartment on pathogen strategy in partially migratory populations

The paper examines how a resistant host compartment influences virulence evolution in migratory populations using an SIRS model, finding that longer residence in the resistant class promotes more virulent pathogens.

Optimal Control Prevents Itself from Eradicating Stochastic Disease Epidemics

This paper shows that deterministic optimal control strategies are insufficient for eradicating stochastic disease epidemics and proposes heuristics that outperform Model Predictive Control in such scenarios.

Predicting recoverability of collapsed food webs through perturbation and dimension reduction

This study predicts the recoverability of collapsed food webs using dimension reduction and perturbation analysis, showing that topological features like connectance and predator links influence recovery.

Aggressive interference as a strategy for enhancing resource gain

The paper develops models predicting the conditions under which aggressive interference optimizes resource gain based on leverage, resource availability, and consumer density.

Catching a wave: on the suitability of traveling-wave solutions in epidemiological modeling

This study investigates when spatial structure should be included in epidemiological models and derives a critical threshold for diffusion coefficient affecting disease spread predictions.

Asymmetric Interactions Shape Survival During Population Range Expansions

The paper studies how asymmetric interactions affect mutant survival during population range expansions using simulations and a mathematical model.

Ecosystem stability relies on diversity difference between trophic levels

The paper shows that ecosystem stability depends on diversity differences between trophic levels rather than absolute diversity, with stability increasing as diversity differences grow.

Unpacking sublinear growth: diversity, stability and coexistence

The paper clarifies that the sublinear growth model does not resolve the species coexistence paradox because it relies on unrealistic assumptions about growth rates at low abundance.