Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Fitting a lattice model with local and global transmission to spread of a plant disease

The paper fits a lattice-based mathematical model to experimental data on citrus disease spread, showing it predicts near-neighbour infections and matches a dispersal-kernel model.

denim: an R package for deterministic compartmental models with flexible dwell time distributions

The paper introduces the denim R package for deterministic compartmental models with flexible dwell time distributions, improving epidemiological modeling accuracy.

Robust coexistence in competitive ecological communities

The paper shows that in large competitive ecological communities, strong intraspecific competition ensures a feasible steady state and stability, making sustained oscillations or chaos unlikely.

Dynamic mean and variance of microparasite load give key insights into population dynamics and underlying mechanisms

The paper models how variance and mean of microparasite load interact with population dynamics and reveals insights into host defense mechanisms and population recovery.

From theory to application: Elasticity-consistent aggregation of Leslie matrix population models for comparative demography

The paper introduces an elasticity-consistent aggregator for Leslie matrix population models, improving accuracy in demographic parameter comparisons across different model complexities.

How host contact network impacts N -strain SIS dynamics with coinfection via a global replicator equation

The paper develops an SIS model for multi-strain epidemics with co-infection on host contact networks, showing that network heterogeneity increases dynamics speed and stabilizes strain coexistence.

COUPLING OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND DIRECT TRANSMISSIONMECHANISMS: ANALYSIS OF A SIMPLE MODEL

The paper analyzes a simple epidemiological model that incorporates both environmental and direct human-to-human transmission, revealing complex dynamics and bifurcation behavior.

The effects of vertical transmission on a spatially-structured host-parasite model

This study examines how vertical transmission affects pathogen dynamics in a spatially structured host-parasite model, showing it can influence invasion, destabilize populations, and impact competition between transmission modes.

Overexploitation counteracts top-down control and the paradox of enrichment in simple food chains.

This study shows overexploitation can suppress top-down control and prevent destabilization in food chains by modulating interaction strengths.

Energy flow controls the stability of multitrophic ecosystems with stratified nonreciprocity

The paper shows that nonreciprocal interactions in ecosystems destabilize systems more when they occur between consumers and predators than between consumers and resources, with energy flow explaining this asymmetry.

Ideal Free Distribution in a Multiple Predator-prey System

The paper analyzes ideal free distributions in predator-prey systems, showing that dispersal strategies lead to evolutionary stability and potential extinction of non-ideal species.

The topology of ecological drift

This paper introduces a stage-structured ecological graph theory to study how community topology influences species coexistence under ecological drift.

Sustainability or Otherwise: The Lotka-Volterra Model in Population Ecology and Socio-Economic Systems

This paper applies the Lotka-Volterra model to analyze sustainability in ecological and socio-economic systems, highlighting both stable dynamics and pathways to negative sustainability.

Coupled dynamics of predator group formation and prey populations

The paper models predator group dynamics and prey population interactions, finding that flexible group sizes lead to smaller stable groups and unexpected resource partitioning between prey types.

Parameter-wise predictions and sensitivity analysis forrandom walk models in the life sciences

The paper introduces parameter-wise prediction for stochastic random walk models in life sciences, using PDE surrogates and likelihood-based methods to analyze sensitivity and parameter estimation.

Interplay of structured and random interactions in complex ecosystems dynamics

This paper investigates how structured and random interactions affect ecosystem dynamics, finding that their effects on community patterns can be largely disentangled, with non-trivial interactions in out-of-equilibrium scenarios.

One predator and two competing prey: insights from a stochastic metapopulation model and mean-field equations

The paper uses a stochastic metapopulation model and mean-field equations to study coexistence dynamics between one predator and two prey species, finding that spatial clustering protects prey from predation.

Optimizing crop clustering to minimize pathogen invasion in agriculture

This study identifies optimal crop clustering strategies to minimize pathogen invasion rates by analyzing dispersal kernels and agricultural landscapes.

Optimal Field Sampling Framework for Disease Surveillance of Clonally Propagated Plants

The paper develops a model and framework to optimize disease surveillance in clonally propagated plants by integrating transmission dynamics and sampling strategies.

Influence of natural enemy specificity and functional response on victim coexistence

This study examines how enemy specificity and functional response shapes coexistence of competing victim species using a deterministic model.

Changing seasonality and phenology mediate the effects of migration across meta-ecosystems

This study shows how seasonal changes and migration timing affect species coexistence and biomass production across ecosystems.

Virtual aquatic ecology: stepped simulations of gross production within constraints explain biomass changes

The paper develops a constraint-based simulator, ECOLPS, to model aquatic ecosystems and identifies key ecological dynamics through simulations.

Accuracy of the Lotka-Volterra Model fails in strongly coupled microbial consumer-resource systems

The paper evaluates the accuracy of the Lotka-Volterra model in capturing microbial consumer-resource dynamics and finds it fails under strong coupling due to omitted nonlinear interactions.

The range-resident logistic model: a new framework to formalize the population-dynamics consequences of range residency

The paper introduces a new population-dynamics model that incorporates range-resident movement, showing how it affects carrying capacity and population size estimates.

A theory of ecological invasions and its implications for eco-evolutionary dynamics

The paper develops a general theory of ecological invasions to predict outcomes and shows that parent-mutant coexistence is common due to ecological feedbacks.

Predicting the invasiveness of threshold-dependent gene drives

This study investigates the invasion dynamics of threshold-dependent gene drives in spatially structured populations using reaction-diffusion models and individual-based simulations, revealing complex spatial containment behaviors.

Multiscale Metapopulations

This paper develops a multiscale metapopulation model to explore how interactions between host and host-associated organism dynamics affect their respective metapopulation predictions.

The TEAIV model: Extending the standard TEIV model to account for viral budding ramp up

The paper extends the TEIV model to account for non-instantaneous viral budding, showing improved fit to SARS-CoV-2 viral load data using linear ramp-up dynamics.

Could malaria mosquitoes be controlled by periodic releases of transgenic mosquitocidal Metarhizium pingshaense fungus? A mathematical modeling approach

This paper evaluates a fungal-based mosquito control strategy using mathematical modeling, finding that periodic releases of transgenic Metarhizium pingshaense can reduce female mosquito populations by up to 86%.

Rigorous (in)validation of ecological models

This paper introduces a new method called covariance criteria to rigorously test ecological models by analyzing covariance relationships between observable quantities, demonstrating its effectiveness across multiple ecological challenges.