Designing viral diagnostics with model-based optimization

Abstract

Diagnostics, particularly for rapidly evolving viruses, stand to benefit from a principled, measurement-driven design that harnesses machine learning and vast genomic data--yet the capability for such design has not been previously built. Here, we develop and extensively validate an approach to designing viral diagnostics that applies a learned model within a combinatorial optimization framework. Concentrating on CRISPR-based diagnostics, we screen a library of 19,209 diagnostic-target pairs and train a deep neural network that predicts, from RNA sequence alone, diagnostic signal better than contemporary techniques. Our model then makes it possible to design assays that are maximally sensitive over the spectrum of a viruss genomic variation. We introduce ADAPT (https://adapt.guide), a system for fully-automated design, and use ADAPT to design optimal diagnostics for the 1,933 vertebrate-infecting viral species within 2 hours for most species and 24 hours for all but 3. We experimentally show ADAPTs designs are sensitive and specific down to the lineage level, including against viruses that pose challenges involving genomic variation and specificity. ADAPTs designs exhibit significantly higher fluorescence and permit lower limits of detection, across a viruss entire variation, than the outputs of standard design techniques. Our model-based optimization strategy has applications broadly to viral nucleic acid diagnostics and other sequence-based technologies, and, paired with clinical validation, could enable a critically-needed, proactive resource of assays for surveilling and responding to pathogens.