Deep mutational scanning of hemagglutinin helps predict evolutionary fates of human H3N2 influenza variants

Human influenza virus rapidly accumulates mutations in its major surface protein hemagglutinin (HA). The evolutionary success of influenza virus lineages depends on how these mutations affect HAs functionality and antigenicity. Here we experimentally measure the effects on viral growth in cell culture of all single amino-acid mutations to the HA from a recent human H3N2 influenza virus strain. We show that mutations that are measured to be more favorable for viral growth are enriched in evolutionarily successful H3N2 viral lineages relative to mutations that are measured to be less favorable for viral growth. Therefore, despite the well-known caveats about cell-culture measurements of viral fitness, such measurements can still be informative for understanding evolution in nature. We also compare our measurements for H3 HA to similar data previously generated for a distantly related H1 HA, and find substantial differences in which amino acids are preferred at many sites. For instance, the H3 HA has less disparity in mutational tolerance between the head and stalk domains than the H1 HA. Overall, our work suggests that experimental measurements of mutational effects can be leveraged to help understand the evolutionary fates of viral lineages in nature -- but only when the measurements are made on a viral strain similar to the ones being studied in nature.\n\nSignificance StatementA key goal in the study of influenza virus evolution is to forecast which viral strains will persist and which ones will die out. Here we experimentally measure the effects of all amino-acid mutations to the hemagglutinin protein from a human H3N2 influenza strain on viral growth in cell culture. We show that these measurements have utility for distinguishing among viral strains that do and do not succeed in nature. Overall, our work suggests that new high-throughput experimental approaches may be useful for understanding virus evolution in nature.