A Molecular Mechanism for Probabilistic Bet-hedging and its Role in Viral Latency

Probabilistic bet hedging, a strategy to maximize fitness in unpredictable environments by matching phenotypic variability to environmental variability, is theorized to account for the evolution of various fate-specification decisions, including viral latency. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying bet-hedging remain unclear. Here, we report that large variability in protein abundance within individual herpesvirus virion particles enables probabilistic bet hedging between viral replication and latency. Super-resolution imaging of individual virions of the human herpesvirus cytomegalovirus (CMV) showed that virion-to-virion levels of pp71 tegument protein--the major viral transactivator protein--exhibit extreme variability. This super-Poissonian tegument variability promoted alternate replicative strategies: high virion pp71 levels enhance viral replicative fitness but, strikingly, impede silencing, whereas low virion pp71 levels reduce fitness but promote silencing. Overall, the results indicate that stochastic tegument packaging provides a mechanism enabling probabilistic bet hedging between viral replication and latency. SIGNIFICANCEProbabilistic bet hedging is a generalized diversification strategy to maximize fitness in unpredictable environments, and has been proposed as an evolutionary basis for herpesvirus latency. However, the molecular mechanisms enabling probabilistic bet hedging have remained elusive. Here, we find that the human herpesvirus cytomegalovirus--a major cause of birth defects and transplant failures--utilizes stochastic variability in the abundance of a protein packaged into individual viral particles to enable probabilistic bet hedging between alternate viral states.