Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Evolution of pathogen dormancy in fluctuating environments

This study investigates how seasonal variation influences the evolution of pathogen dormancy and reactivation strategies, showing when plasticity is favored over fixed strategies.

Decoupled seasonal effects of an environmentally transmitted wildlife disease

This study investigates how seasonal changes affect sarcoptic mange in wombats, showing that seasonal environments limit parasite persistence and influence disease prevalence and population dynamics.

The limitations of non-mechanistic methods for characterizing pathogen-pathogen interactions: A simulation study

This paper evaluates non-mechanistic methods for detecting pathogen-pathogen interactions using simulations and finds they often fail to accurately infer interactions or their strength.

Synthetic Horizontal Gene Transfer for Ecosystem Restoration

This study investigates the effects of synthetic horizontal gene transfer in ecological consortia models to promote biodiversity and regulate gene propagation.

Complex epidemiological dynamics driven by the combination of host spatial structure and seasonal forcing

The paper develops a model to study how spatial structure and seasonal forcing together influence disease dynamics, finding complex behaviors like chaos and bistability under certain conditions.

Projection criteria and information risks forzero-dimensional biological dynamics across molecular,epidemic, and ecological systems

This paper evaluates the accuracy of zero-dimensional projections in biological systems by analyzing information loss and risk metrics across different models and conditions.

'Loop tracing' feedback reveals mechanisms that drive instabilities in resource-host-parasite dynamics

The paper uses loop tracing to analyze feedback mechanisms in resource-host-parasite models, revealing how resource effects drive instabilities like oscillations and Allee effects.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen epidemic timing in a seasonal environment

The paper develops an evolutionary epidemiology model to study how pathogens adapt to seasonal environments, revealing two regimes of seasonal timing adaptation.

How adaptation to food resources and death rates shape oscillatory dynamics in a microbial population

This study uses a consumer-resource model to show that microbial oscillations depend on adaptation timescales relative to death rates and food dynamics.

Neglecting movement-disease feedback biases wildlife epidemic forecasts

This paper introduces a framework that integrates infection-modified movement into wildlife disease models to improve epidemic forecasts.

How Demographic Noise Shapes Phenotypic Clusters in Environmental Gradients

This paper shows that phenotypic clusters in populations arise due to stochasticity rather than Turing instability, and examines how population size and recombination affect cluster distances.

Evolution of informed dispersal strategies in trophic meta-communities

The paper shows five dispersal strategies evolve in trophic meta-communities based on ecological conditions and information sensing.

Shifting resource limitation explains multiphasic patterns of density dependence

The paper shows that sublinear density dependence can arise from sequential shifts in resource limitation, without needing other factors like predation, and predicts superlinear dependence at high and low densities.

Environmental Stochasticity Reshapes Persistence and Extinction Dynamics in a Fear-Mediated Two-Species Competitive System

This study shows environmental stochasticity can drive species extinction in a fear-mediated competitive system, even when deterministic models predict coexistence.

Comparative assessment of gene drive release patterns and spread with a hex-based model for large-scale simulations

The paper develops a hexagon-based model to simulate gene drive spread and evaluates optimal release patterns for different scenarios.

Modeling mosquito control strategies and their effect on pathogen transmission

The paper compares the effectiveness of Sterile Insect Technique and Toxic Male Technique in reducing mosquito populations and virus transmission probability using a coupled mathematical model.

Mosquito Dispersal in Context

This paper develops behavioral state microsimulation models to study mosquito dispersal, showing that population structure arises from resource availability and behavioral states.

Warming-induced switches in dominance are built into intraguild predation systems

This study shows warming can shift power dynamics in intraguild predation systems by altering resource enrichment, without differences in thermal optima between species.

Emergent feasibility in random ecological systems with higher-order interactions

The paper shows that higher-order interactions in ecological models can increase the probability of feasible equilibria with increasing species diversity, contrasting with pairwise interactions where feasibility decreases.

Disentangling different sources of variation in functional responses: between-individuals variability, measurements errors and inherent stochasticity of the prey-predator interaction process

The paper develops a statistical framework to estimate different sources of variation in prey-predator interactions, showing how experimental design affects parameter identifiability.

A Hierarchical Bayesian Agent Based Model for Binary Spatio-Temporal Spread: Theory, PDE Scaling Limit, and an Application to Predator Prey Cycles

The paper develops a hierarchical Bayesian agent-based model for binary spatio-temporal data and shows its scaling to a PDE, applying it to predator-prey cycles.

Dormancy stabilizes structured food webs

The paper shows dormancy stabilizes oscillatory dynamics in structured food webs by converting high oscillation frequency into strong restoring force, but not in unstructured networks or those dominated by competitive or mutualistic interactions.

Unifying coexistence theory for ecological communities and pathogen strain competition

This paper develops a unifying framework to predict pathogen strain and species competition outcomes by generalizing ecological coexistence theory to account for resource overcompensation.

Predator coexistence and herbivore suppression are shaped by predator functional types in intraguild predation modules

This study explores how predator functional types influence coexistence and herbivore suppression in intraguild predation modules using a theoretical model.

Population growth is primarily inhibited by processes other than resource depletion, leaving a sublinear signature across species

The paper shows that population growth slows sublinearly with density in most species, challenging the resource-depletion model and suggesting other inhibitory processes are at play.

Morphological routes to extinction: A mechanistic assessment of habitat loss

The paper assesses habitat loss impacts using geometric and mechanistic metrics, finding geometric metrics overestimate persistence while mechanistic indicators show accelerating extinction risks.

Activity Patterns Structure Food Web Interactions Through Time

The paper examines how activity traits affect predator-prey interactions and food web stability across taxa and temporal scales.

Transmission Dynamics of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Infection Rates: The Role of Avian Host Stage and Differential Mosquito Exposure

The paper models EEEV transmission dynamics, identifying mosquito biting rate and adult avian mortality as key factors driving cyclic and stable outbreak patterns.

Analyzing minimum viable populations in deterministic community models using viability space decomposition

The paper introduces viability space decomposition to analyze how minimum viable populations interact with population dynamics in ecological communities, showing different extinction and survival outcomes.

Food-web architecture governs when predator advantage supports collective persistence

The paper shows that food-web architecture determines whether predator advantage supports or undermines collective persistence, with omnivory playing a key role.