Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

From static thresholds to dynamic waves: How biological memory destabilizes malaria transmission Potential

This paper develops a delay-based framework to model malaria transmission dynamics, showing that biological memory from developmental delays can create time-dependent transmission potential and stability fluctuations.

Coexistence of bacteria with a competition-colonization tradeoff on a dynamic coral host

This study models how competition-colonization tradeoffs between bacterial species on a dynamic coral host influence coexistence outcomes.

The role of edible habitat complexity in food webs

This paper models how edible habitat complexity (EHC) stabilizes predator-prey interactions in aquatic food webs by providing safety in rarity for both prey and EHC species.

Bridging spatial scales in respiratory viral infection

The paper introduces LEAP, a mathematical model of respiratory viral infection that captures local plaque growth and long-range seeding, showing that few long-range events are needed for viral spread and that interferon has limited impact on growth in well-adapted viruses.

Stochastic Emergence of Irregular Infection Fronts in Motile Bacteria-Phage Populations

The paper shows that stochastic infection dynamics in motile bacteria-phage populations lead to irregular spatial patterns, with front roughness controlled by burst size and adsorption rate.

Analysis of persistence thresholds for a nonlocal PDE--ODE model of bacterial persister cells

The paper analyzes a nonlocal PDE-ODE model of bacterial persister cells to determine a sharp parameter threshold for colony persistence or extinction.

Simplifying species-interaction models by grouping parameters: optimal groupings differ between effects and responses

The paper evaluates grouping strategies in species-interaction models using Drosophila data, finding that optimal groupings vary between effects and responses and cannot be reliably predicted from species attributes.

Heterogeneous transmission estimation and strategy optimization for Chikungunya: a vector-borne modeling study differentiating age and sex

This study develops an age- and sex-structured model to estimate Chikungunya transmission and optimize control strategies, identifying asymptomatic males aged 15-59 as the core transmission group and highlighting mosquito suppression as the most effective intervention.

Targeting HIV at its core: A mathematical model for optimizing Tat Inhibitor-based therapies toward enhanced functional cure strategies

This paper develops a mathematical model to analyze HIV dynamics and optimize Tat inhibitor-based therapies for functional cure strategies by examining viral rebound and therapy interactions.

Nonlinear effects of noise on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases

This study examines how environmental and demographic noise affects mosquito-borne disease outbreaks, finding that increased noise can reduce endemic risk but lead to larger outbreaks at intermediate noise levels.

Common misspecification of the generation interval leads to reproduction number underestimation in phylodynamic inference

The paper shows that assuming an exponential generation interval in phylodynamic inference leads to underestimation of the reproduction number R during early epidemic growth.

Coexistence of Photosynthetic Marine Microorganisms, Viruses, and Grazers: Toward Integration in Ocean Ecosystem Models

This paper develops a community model to investigate mechanisms enabling coexistence of viruses, grazers, and phytoplankton in marine ecosystems, finding that viral life history traits and predator mortality terms are critical for stability.

Emergent coexistence and the limits of reductionism in ecological communities

The paper shows that emergent coexistence in ecological communities arises from dense networks of indirect effects in species-rich models with pairwise interactions, revealing a limit to reductionist explanations.

How does individual trait variation impact the survival of populations with an Allee effect?

This study investigates how intraspecific trait variation impacts population survival under Allee effects using individual-based models, finding that ITV can hinder survival in mate-finding Allee effects but benefit survival in predator-driven Allee effects.

Cooperation maximizes biodiversity

This paper introduces cooperation into structural stability theory to show that cooperation promotes biodiversity through coexistence, intertwined biodiversity, and multistability.

Persistence and near persistence via trait evolution: pathways to coexistence

The paper analyzes coexistence of two competing species with evolving traits, showing that equal trait variances limit coexistence scenarios and that invasion analysis must consider multiple eco-evolutionary equilibria.

Optimal spatial release strategies for confined gene drives and Wolbachia

This study identifies optimal spatial release strategies for gene drives and Wolbachia to maximize per-capita efficiency across different drive types and timeframes.

Optimal virulence in ageing populations

The paper models how population ageing affects optimal pathogen virulence for four diseases in different regions, finding increased virulence in some areas and decreased in others.

Multiscale Modeling of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Role of Dose-Dependent Transmission

This study develops a multiscale epidemic model linking host-vector transmission to within-host and within-vector pathogen dynamics, showing that nonlinear coupling can lead to complex epidemiological behaviors.

Stage-dependent biotic interactions may not be important for stochastic competitive dynamics with little variation in stage structure

This study shows that stage-dependent interactions have limited impact on predictive accuracy of community models when stage structure is stable, even under strong stage dependence.

Stochasticity in viral infection and host response: A competition between speed and reliability

This study models stochasticity in viral release and IFN response to show how timing variability affects early infection dynamics, finding asymmetrical impacts on virus expansion and host containment.

The impact of coinfection on population stability and chaos

This study examines how coinfection affects population stability by analyzing flour beetle dynamics with and without parasites, finding that facilitation among parasites can drive populations into chaos.

Managing populations after a disease outbreak: exploration of epidemiological consequences of managed host reintroduction following disease-driven host decline

The paper uses a dynamical population model to explore the epidemiological consequences of reintroducing healthy Pycnopodia helianthioides individuals into wild populations affected by Sea Star Wasting Disease.

e3SIM: epidemiological-ecological-evolutionary simulation framework for genomic epidemiology

The paper introduces e3SIM, a simulator that models epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary processes in pathogens, demonstrating its use with SARS-CoV-2 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Evolutionary dynamics at the leading edge of biological invasions

The paper uses mathematical models to study how evolutionary trade-offs affect dispersal and spreading speed during species invasions.

Direct and community-driven selection jointly drive body size evolution in harvested predator-prey systems

This paper examines how direct and community-driven selection influence body size evolution in harvested predator-prey systems, showing their combined impact on evolutionary trajectories and fishery yields.

Heterogeneous immune recovery after viral response through a dynamical model of feedback-driven persistence and clearance

This paper develops a dynamical model of immune response during viral infection, revealing multiple stable states and the role of immune components in recovery and chronic disease.

Data-Driven Discovery of Mechanistic Ecosystem Models with LLMs

This paper introduces LEMMA, a framework using LLMs and evolutionary algorithms to generate and refine mechanistic ecosystem models, demonstrating strong performance in marine case studies.

Weak dispersal and landscape size inevitably promote local biodiversity in heterogeneous metacommunities of competing species

The paper explains how weak dispersal and larger landscapes increase local biodiversity in competitive species by linking spatial coexistence to nonspatial competitive dynamics and validates this with simulations and field data.

Tuning Spatial Distributions of Selection Pressure to Suppress Emergence of Resistance

The paper presents a model showing that tuning spatial distribution of selection pressure can slow resistance evolution and extend the effective lifetime of control measures.