M. A. Suchard

How fast are viruses spreading in the wild?

This study evaluates dispersal metrics for viruses using simulation and compares their spread in animal populations, finding robustness to sampling effort and human-mediated dispersal signatures.

Scalable gradients enable Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling for phylodynamic inference under episodic birth-death-sampling models

This paper introduces a gradient-based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler for efficient inference in episodic birth-death-sampling models, showing significant computational improvements over Metropolis-Hastings methods.

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The paper identifies the recent origin and geographical distribution of bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, showing they circulated in Asia before spilling over into humans.

The evolutionary history of hepaciviruses

This study identifies novel rodent hosts of hepaciviruses, documents their diversity, and estimates the origin of the genus to be about 22 million years ago.

Putative APOBEC3 deaminase editing in MPXV as evidence for sustained human transmission since at least 2016.

The paper analyzes MPXV genomes to show evidence of APOBEC3 deaminase editing, suggesting sustained human transmission since 2016.

Macroevolutionary dynamics of climatic niche space

The paper models the evolution of bird climatic niches across time, finding increased disparity and heterogeneous evolutionary rates, with some lineages showing high rates and others niche stasis.

Total virome characterizations of game animals in China reveals a spectrum of emerging viral pathogens

The paper characterizes the virome of 1725 game animals in China, identifying 71 mammalian viruses, 45 novel, and highlighting potential zoonotic risks.

Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

The paper predicts that Lassa virus endemic areas will expand beyond West Africa due to environmental changes, increasing the population at risk from 100 million to 700 million by 2070.

Archival influenza virus genomes from Europe reveal genomic and phenotypic variability during the 1918 pandemic

Phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to epidemiological hypothesis testing

This study uses phylogeographic and phylodynamic methods to test hypotheses about West Nile virus dispersal and genetic diversity, finding temperature influences on spread and no strong evidence for migratory bird flyway restriction.

Accommodating individual travel history, global mobility, and unsampled diversity in phylogeography: a SARS-CoV-2 case study.

This paper integrates travel history data into Bayesian phylogeographic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 to improve virus spread reconstructions and address sampling bias.

The history of measles: from a 1912 genome to an antique origin

The paper sequences a 1912 measles virus genome and uses molecular clock modeling to estimate measles virus divergence from rinderpest virus as early as the 4th century BCE.