Lifetime brain atrophy estimated from a single MRI: measurement characteristics and genome-wide correlates

A measure of lifetime brain atrophy (LBA) obtained from a single magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan could be an attractive candidate to boost statistical power in uncovering novel genetic signals and mechanisms of neurodegeneration. We analysed data from five young and old adult cohorts (MRi-Share, Human Connectome Project, UK Biobank, Generation Scotland Subsample, and Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 [LBC1936]) to test the validity and utility of LBA inferred from cross-sectional MRI data, i.e., a single MRI scan per participant. LBA was simply calculated based on the relationship between total brain volume (TBV) and intracranial volume (ICV), using three computationally distinct approaches: the difference (ICV-TBV), ratio (TBV/ICV), and regression-residual method (TBV[~]ICV). LBA derived with all three methods were substantially correlated with well-validated neuroradiological atrophy rating scales (r = 0.37-0.44). Compared with the difference or ratio method, LBA computed with the residual method most strongly captured phenotypic variance associated with cognitive decline (r = 0.36), frailty (r = 0.24), age-moderated brain shrinkage (r = 0.45), and longitudinally-measured atrophic changes (r = 0.36). LBA computed using a difference score was strongly correlated with baseline (i.e., ICV; r = 0.81) and yielded GWAS signal similar to ICV (rg = 0.75). We performed the largest genetic study of LBA to date (N = 43,110), which was highly heritable (h2 SNP GCTA = 41% [95% CI = 38-43%]) and had strong polygenic signal (LDSC h2 = 26%; mean{chi} 2 = 1.23). The strongest association in our genome-wide association study (GWAS) implicated WNT16, a gene previously linked with neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer, and Parkinson disease, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. This study is the first side-by-side evaluation of different computational approaches to estimate lifetime brain changes and their measurement characteristics. Careful assessment of methods for LBA computation had important implications for the interpretation of existing phenotypic and genetic results, and showed that relying on the residual method to estimate LBA from a single MRI scan captured brain shrinkage rather than current brain size. This makes this computationally-simple definition of LBA a strong candidate for more powerful analyses, promising accelerated genetic discoveries by maximising the use of available cross-sectional data.